not spending cuts. those spending cuts will help the economy grow. we will debate. and the president says the private sector is doing fine. how much more disconnected can he be? does he even understand the subject? "the kudlow report" is just moments ago. i know it's a big sports weekend. for me i'm just paying attention to spain and germany. this week's rally was all about the secret deal we better get this weekend or else we'll be back in purgatory. remember it's really binary here. be careful. i'm jim cramer. i will see you monday. hey, larry, happy friday. what are you looking at tonight? i'm just sayin' that. good evening, everybody. i'm larry cud loy this is "the kudlow report." if you ever wanted prove the president was disconnected with the business world, look no further than the press

conference/campaign appearance where he said this. >> the private sector is doing fine. >> mr. president, the private sector is not doing fine. you know it, businesses know it, homeowners know it. the president spent the entire day having to clarify his comments with wit this. >> it is absolutely clear that the economy is not doing fine. that's the reason i had the press conference. >> well, which is it? does the president really understand the subject? this caps off a bad week for president obama. plus president clinton joined mayor booker in the course house for telling the truth about tax cuts and bain capital. now pros thing obama may just lose. obama's worst week of the year amid stocks of their best week of the year. you connect the dots. also this evening the

thoroughbred i'll have another scrapped from the belmont. the real horse race is chit thoroughbred mitt romney will pick as vice president. all the candidates auditioned at the conservative cpac meet in chicago today. and in best cnbc fashion, we'll talk about which candidates are overvalued and undervalued. president obama capped off a week of fund-raising with a press difference during which he said the private sector is doing just fine. that's when the back lash began. john harwood joins us with the details. good evening, john. >> reporter: good evening, larry. as you said it's been a difficult week for president obama. he came out, had a news conference, tried to change the narrative by calling attention to the problems in europe and urging leaders to act on their problems, both long-term fiscal restructuring and growth, but unfortunately for the president, all of the attention was gen

rated by a few words he wishes now he could take back. >> created 4.3 million jobs over the last 27 months, over 800,000 just this year alone the private sector is doing fine. >> is he really out of touch? i think he's. >> flpt, i used to run a small business. take it from me, the private sector is not doing well. >> my question to the president would be, are you kidding? did he see the job numbers that came out last week? the private sector is not doing fine. >> of course the president after, all of that pounding, which continues throughout the day took the advantage of a photo op with the philippine leader to make some comments clarifying and walking back that description of the economy is just fine. >> listen it is absolutely clear

the economy is not doing fine. s that the reason i had the press conference. that's why i spent yesterday and the day before yesterday, this past week, this past month and this past year talking about how we can make the economy stronger. >> now, of course, larry, there's no question the president understands that the economy is weak and needs help. it's really a case of a few ill-chosen words just as it was for john mccain four years ago when he came out during the financial crisis and said the fundamentals of the economy were strong, the obama campaign jumped on that, and as one mccain official said today, what goes around comes around. >> thank you, john. the whole thing is somewhat baffling to me. folks, what is going on? is obama? denial or plain out of touch? we have keith boykin, and author of "shakedown" the continuing

conspiracy, and steve moore of "wall street journal" editorial board. guys i want to play a cut at what chris christie said today. i think he has it completely right. please take a listen. >> since i've been governor, we now have fewer people on the state payroll than at any time since christie whitman left office in january of 2001. that's the right direction, mr. president. >> steve moore, i think he hits it right on the button the i this many p p.m. was just disconnected, but i want to go to this point. what christie is saying is what scott walker was saying in wisconsin. if you have a reduction of state payrolls, that opens the dao are for a healthier low-tack private sector growth and job creation. sup what obama just doesn't get? >> he doesn't get it. what's not being given enough attention is not that he said it's doing just fine, but the

second part was we need more government to get this economy to run, and i agree with chris christie. what you need right now is austerity in government and you need private sector growth, and obama has it exactly back-aswards. >> i'm going to give you a chance to rebut. going back to the very beginning of the session, the private sector lost a million jobs, including what have been picked up, but the net is we've lost 5 million jobs in the private sector, only 470,000 jobs in the public sector, and in a few key states, like wisconsin, like new jersey, like new york, like illinois, like california, i think less public workers would strengthen the economy. does obama understand that, or does he see it all through the prism of government, government, government? >> well, you sound like mitt romney, was mitt romney said we don't need any more teachers or firefighters or cops.

bakley he's saying we're basically going to throw in the towel, we're not going to try to do anything to rescue the economy the what barack obama said today, which i think is right is not that -- is the private sector is trying to do their job, but they need help, support, need congress to pass a jobs bill and help the economy get growing again. >> steve malanga, you are an expert on state and local government and workforces, pensions and benefits. i want you to weigh in, because i thought chris christie really nailed it. and i think president obama completely disagrees. he would give state and local governments more money, because he thinks that creates more growth. what does the american experience tell us? >> first of all, he specifically said today the problem is not the private sector, but the problem is the -- i was baffled. do you realize that government unemployment in america is still below 5%? it's like 4.5, state and local

unemployment. the president -- and also vice president biden have said over and over and over again that these public sector job cuts are killing us, but the public sector job cuts, as i've written in "wall street journal" are not nearly as great as people thing. after two decades of tremendous run-up that really outpaced the growth -- >> again, before we -- before you -- look, i just want to repeat these numbers. since the beginning of the recession, 470,000 government workers have been cut. however, 5 million people in the private sector have lost their jobs. that's not even remotely close. the private sector has suffered so much -- >> usual there's more people in the private sector than government sector. >> not for long. >> why are you surprised? >> does the president realize that? >> of course he does. i think what's preposterous about this conversation is it's based on the assumption that austerity will solve the problem.

it's not working in britain, austria is investing in education and job training and they have the lower unemployment rate in europe. we need to follow the same model and invest in our education. >> this is what we did in 2009. what you're stalking about is stimulus 2, 3 or 4 or whatever number we're on, and it did not work form the biggest component of the first $830 billion stimulus bill was giving moan to state and local governments. why should the federal government do that? why should i have as a resident of virginia pay for schoolteachers in new york? >> good es what? you already do. >> people should pay for their local spending with local tax dollars. >> unemployment rate right now for people with college degrees is 3.9%. the unemployment for people with high school del ploppas is 13%. that's a huge difference. that means we need to invest in

education, larry. >> we need businesses hire more, they're the best trainees for these things. let me just ask you this. it's to do to me, too, the second second part of this dis. the private sector -- this is another spring stall. does he not understand that the job numbers in the last three months have been lousy, that the gdp came in at 1.9%, there's less business investment in the first quarter? does he get that, that's that's what caused his polls to go down? when he says the private sector is doing just fine, there isn't anybody who agrees with that. >> the numbers are going in the wrong direction. you saw the gdp numbers that even came out for the states and what it showed is the few states tracking above the trend are states like north dakota energy, texas energy, low taxes, that's really where the growth is coming, so there's this dramatic, you know, difference when you have numbers going this

way and a few stays going this way, and are multiples of dr, and a related point is he has the causality reversed. state and local governments did fine. they had a tlood of revenue. we don't have consumer demand, because we don't have jobs. >> what we don't have now is investment. that's why that second part of that -- it's the tax cliff we've got to -- >> businesses are sitting on $2 trillion worth of capital, they're not investing, interest rates are historically low. >> why? because he wants to raise capital gains taxes. >> the same as they were in the bush administration, what are you talking about? >> this is the worst recovery in the post-worrell war ii period. our job creation and gdp growth is about half of what is normal. i want to ask you this point, because related to this, he says this about the private sector, then he spends the rest of the day walking it back. this is a man who is not at ease

talking about the economy. i think that's a very important point. >> i think that's exactly the takeaway. >> i think mitt romney is the winner today big time, because romney is facile, and obama stumbles over his shoelaces every time he calms about it. >> it's the teem. for the past six months it's a class war fare, a war against the stock market -- >> that's why the dow has doubled since he's been in office. >> he really meant that. i think he really believes the problem with the u.s. economy is not enough government and too much private sector. >> that's a mischaracterization. mitt romney is saying basically he's going to cut the unemployment rate by two points to 6% by the end of his four years. that's the same place the cbo already estimates it would be. >> i think most persons would take 6%. >> i'm going to give you the

last word, steve. you've. state and local government workers go down. what happens to the american economy? >> well, first of all, what happens is budgets at the state and local level come into, you know, that are actually -- they're actually balanced at that particular point, and you take a place like new jersey. chris christie has the worst business environment that he inherited in the country next to new york and california. the only way he's going to improve that is if he cuts government spending to reduce taxes. >> that's the key point. lower government spending and moreau strained pensions and benefits leads to lower tax rates, more economic growth. i've said it 1,000 times, i'll wind up saying it another thousand times. steve boykin, steve malanga, steve moore, a great discussion. the tax cliff is a clear and present danger, but the spending cut cliff will actually help the economy grow. less government, more growth.

look at greece. all government, no growth. think when that, folks, later on an avalanche of bad news, it's starting to feel like 1980, when jimmy carter went into his tailspin. free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. i have a book that i can send to president obama so he can bone up on how the economy really works. i'm larry kudlow. we'll be right back with friedrich hayek. oh, we call it the bundler. let's say you need home and auto insurance. you give us your information once, online... [ whirring and beeping ] [ ding! ] and we give you a discount on both. sort of like two in one. how did you guys think of that?

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the fast-approaching fiscal clef, one of the biggest threats to our economy right now. and today's "wall street journal" editorial drills down on the real threat, which is bernanke's cliffhanger, that being the fiscal danger of a tax hike next year. but not spending cuts, they're part of the solution. here's my point. smaller government equals -- why doesn't team obama figure this out. we have contributors chad bernstein, former chief economist for vice president joe biden. phil kirpin, jared my friend, if more spending was the answer, then greece would be an economic

superpower, so i want us to follow the reform model, let as downside government. spending cuts are not part of the problem, they're part of the solution. >> you know, larry said you were going to show up with friedrich here, i don't see him anywhere. i'm channeling keynes. if you lynn to ben bernanke, who i think you have to admit is not a wild-eyed radical, he's not saying doesn't have to do with the overall government spending level in the long term, but he's saying nest year it would be a bad idea to cut out about 65 billion -- the journal had it wrong -- they had a number about twice that large, cutting out $65 million automatically sdrim instantly. that's what the issue is. >> let me -- >> you've got to think about where that spending is being financed from. those are borrowed dollars, coming from sales of treasuries, there's huge demand for

investment in the u.s., the rest of the world has no place safe. every dollar we don't borrow is going to be invested in something more productive in the private secto are in the u.s. >> that would be the case if we were at full employment. what we actually see is corporations sit on tons of cash, not investing because of the expectations that taxes are going through the roof? >> let me finish, phil. the yield is very low. it's presolisly to be borrowing and spending temporarily. >> but let me pose it to i this way. jared says the spending cut number that's going to take effect early january is about $65 billion. >> cbo, right. >> that's out of about a $4 trillion budget. phil, if we can't cut $65 billion out of $4 trillion in order to reduce the tax threat, in order to reduce the debt threat, and in order to reduce spending, we'll never reform this country, and we are headed for greece. that's my point and that's my

worry. $65 billion, phil kirpin, is nothing and it should stay in. they could not take it out. >> i think you're right. this was a small deal relative to the size of the fiscal challenges we face. if the message is we can't stick to our word, that's a bad message to send about the future course of our fiscal policy in this country. frankly you cannot solve this problem without significant cuts in spending. we have spending as a percentage of gdp, the tax system has never borne anywhere near that amount. there have been to spending cuts. >> so here's the thing, first of all, nobody is talking about never doing any spending cuts. if you listen to bernanke, he's saying move that back, puv it bark, but here's where i disagree. >> he's not right about thativities phil, let me finish, phil, listen to me the way i listened to you, show me the same respect. here's the thing. >> we've agreed to spending cuts. we need some revenues in the

deal as well. we can't simply do this on the spending side. it has to be much more balanced. >> i understand that, but all i'll say -- >> we've got to balance that 20% of gdp around the historical average, not of at the historic -- >> we are telling every european country to tighten their spending builts and have government austerity. we need to follow our own advice. >> that's not what we're telling them. >> this is a measly $6 a billion out of a $4 trillion budget. i think bernanke is wrong. i think cutting spending will grow the economy. as phil said resources will flow back to the -- >> all sister killed at a time like this. >> we tried it that way. i say lower tax rates. >> the austerity is not working. >> supply-side economics works. the keynesianism hasn't been working. >> jared bernstein, phil kirpin, thanks for coming back on. up next on kudlow, first slammed in wisconsin, then president clinton sank the s.s.

obama. it's been 9 worst week of the year for president obama. the best week for stocks. we're going to connect the stocks between obama's down and stock's up, but first the thor oy bred i'll have another won't have another. it was scrapped from ever capturing the triple crown. and there are business implications too. a news alert is coming up next. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about the personal attention tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you and your money deserve. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, that means taking a close look at you tdd# 1-800-345-2550 as well as your portfolio. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we ask the right questions, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 then we actually listen to the answers tdd# 1-800-345-2550 before giving you practical ideas you can act on. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck online, on the phone, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or come in and pull up a chair.

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welcome back. i'm brian schactman is a news update. allege costs from the foib fo losses may be as high as $350 million, according to sources. quote, not disclose the amount of loss, which is not material to ubs. end quote. it's the defense's turn in the gupta trading case. his attorney said it's highly likely that gupta will take the stand next week. and racing fans will not see a race for the triple crown tomorrow. >> what a difference a day makes. i'll have another is out, and the press conference today is he will be retired from racing. certainly a big change from when redham told us he intended to have him run until he could run

no more. the last time we had a triple crown is now 34 years ago when affirmed won. there have been 11 horses that tried to win and failed. we thought i'll have another was going to be 12 to try. gull again, he will not be here tomorrow. thanks, dan. of course his stud fees will still be pretty high. if you have tux for the race there are no refunds for fans or sponsors. when larry comes back, you won't want a refund. the weekend that was for president obama. "the kudlow report" is coming right back. optionsxpress, where you can trade your favorite products

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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm larry kudlow. in this half hour, chris christy wows them again at the conservative cpac meeting in chicago. he may deny it, but he is auditioning for vice president. so are marco rubio, tim pawlenty. we'll see whose stock is overvalued and undervalued. president obama has his

worst week of the year. 93 points today alone, s&p up 48 points, the nasdaq up 111. whether it's wisconsin, california or bill clinton, are u.s. politics moving in a pro-growth low-tax supply-side direction? maybe the stock market is picking that up. but first up, it has been a bad week for president obama. hit with a mountain of bad news, threatens to become an avalanche. he's been out-fund raised by mitt romney, undercut be former president bill clinton. nearly every time clinton opens his mouth, wisconsin proved that big loser and democrats and unions alike, and romney pulls ahead in michigan. ed rendell slams the president for his inexperience as an executive and with a dismatt approval rating of over 46%. the president squarely in the danger zone. can the president hold back the

avalanche, or is the political tide turning against him and formitt rom n i so let's talk about all this. we have cnbc contributor jared bernstein back with us doing double duty for which we are grateful. >> i'll have another. >> mark simone jones us, talk radio show host and soon we will be joined by lars larsen, nationally syndicated radio talk show host. bill clinton speaking more sense, democratic professionals talking about obama losing the race. what's going on? is obama in a free fall? >> just remember i said this. he will look on this the past week as the good old days. things will not get better. mitt romney hasn't made a -- obama is a gaff machine. google obama gaff, he has a history of this, 57 states,

things like that. today was a great example. he'll make more of these slips, saying the private economy is in -- >> the president is disciplined. to say that romney has never made a gaff, i wonder what planet you're living on -- but here's the thing to focus on a particular week, i guarantee nobody outside of the beltway knows anything about anything in your introduction, larry, and in two weeks, nobody inside the beltway will know it, the clinton nuance will be -- this is what happens when you overly analyze -- >> i can't agree. i think the clinton thing is front page news and cable news all week long. >> clinton is a big supporter of the president. >> i totally agree with bill clinton. they ought to extend the tax cuts, bill clinton is trying to signal for barack obama and move to the center and be a moderate, but obama's team won't do that. mark simone, i think all these

left-wing guys are just ruining him. this plouffe, the campaign manager, these guys are so far to the left they won't listen to what bill clinton is trying to say, they won't lynn to what cory booker is trying to say, they won't listen to ed rendell is trying to say, and i think this is killing obama, mark simone. >> the voter is not that stupid, they get the sense they might be a nice guy and sincere, but people say, what am i voting for? four more years of this? the problem is you've got a great cabinet, but that he never consults with his cabinet. he's an introvert, a loner, they'll say he's basically out campaigning for them -- >> again, mark is definitely not playing in the real world here. i worked for the president and the administration. he consults with his cabinet intimately. >> not according to them behind

the scenes. >> i'm telling you the way it -- secondly look at the approval ratings. here's what matters. there's a lot of political science behind it. >> jared, he's running in the mid 50s. that's devastating for an incumbent president, jared. he's running in the mid 50s, and he's actually now tied in a swing state like michigan. how can you say the number don't -- the number show that the public sees a guy -- >> where is mitt romney running? what are his numbers? irmgts he's simply too liberal. >> where is mitt romney running? you've got the number. >> if mitt romney is tied with the incumbent right now in a state like michigan, where romney was ten or 12 points down before. if romney is going to be gaining in a state like wisconsin, these are huge trouble spots. >> in terms of approval rating, he's about two points -- >> mark sim money, incumbent presidents who are below 50%,

and in this case, he's running 45, 46%, that's devastating, is it not? that in effect is predicting where their vote is going to come in, straighten jared out for me. >> absolutely, guys he should have listened to were soon gone, but voters know the problem is private sector jobs, not shovel ready -- we need private sector jobs, and aivity dangling shiny objects, playing games with distractions, equal pay for women or gay marriage. he's got no plan to create private sector jobs. >> that tough matters to a lot of people, mark. it may not matter to you or larry, but it matters to a lot of women. i'll tell you that. >> i think my friend lars larsen is ready to come back in. >> railroad out there, bud,? >> i'm right out here. >> jared bernstein, he doesn't believe that any of this rubs off, that all of these gaff that obama is making, where he says

the economy is fine and 20 minutes later for the rest of the day says the economy is not fine, i think this stuff is killing him and he's had his worst week all year. what's your take? >> absolutely he's had the worst week, and it's going to keep on coming with other decisions from the supreme court. but think about what he said today. the private sector is fine. he doesn't mind a small-growth private sector, but goes on to say the government sector isn't growing fast enough. he literally said that as we should have it growing -- of course that's what he believes, because he basically. >> so here's my point. >> he wants the government to grow. >> i totally agree with everybody on this panel, the president misspoke today, vis-a-v vis-a-vis. >> no, he didn't. >> but here's the reason -- >> it doesn't matter. he goofed. >> here's the reason why i think that so-called gaff will stick, because against of times the president says, yes, 9 economy is getting better, but nowhere nearly good enough. now, you washington pundits may

see it differently, but the american people understand where it's coming from. >> later he said i know the economy is bad. that's why i held a press conference. he thinks it's a marketing problem. he's got to have a real plan and he doesn't. >> let me raise there, lars, i have a theory, i'm going to share it with you. >> go ahead, i want to hear it. >> see, i think bill clinton is trying to teach obama something about being a moderate, for low taxes in a lousy economy. clinton called 2 a recession economy. he's saying he should extend the tax cuts right now, you should come back from all this campaigning, go to the white house and make a deal with john boehner, use some kind of budget deficit reduction, if it has to be simpson both, whatever, show the people you're taking constructive steps. that's what clinton is trying to tell obama. that's what's doing him, and he will not listen to clinton. you take it from there. >> but it goes beyond that, the

president only misspoke and he said out loud what he honestly believes. that is he is fine with a slow growth economy, as long as the government continuing to grow. he said it out loud. he said the states around america required to hundred within balanced budgets have laid off too many people. they have done it, because they're spending within their means, the one thing obama and the congress and the u.s. government have not been able to do, live within your means, and his suggestion is the congress needs to take a shovel and start shoveling out borrowed money to the states to hire more employees they can't afford to have on the payroll. >> two things, first of all, it's a crazy thing that happens in this town. 1,000 times in a row the president says what he always says, which is, yes, the economy is improving, but not fast enough and it needs to get better. the 1,001st time he says the economy is fine, he definitely misspoke. that's what hi means, that's what -- second point, larry, you're absolutely right, the

president is with bill clinton. >> no, he's not. >> bill clinton said everything should be extended, except for the high-end tax cuts. you know he walked that back. >> clinton may walk all this back, cory booker may, but i go back to my original point. the left-wingers around ode 'bama are at war with the moderate clinton pro-business wing of the democratic part. the left wingers are completely wrong, and they're going to drag obama -- and i'm going to tell you. the real winner here, the real winner here, lars larsen is mitt romney, who looks like a sensible center right, moderate conservative, pro-business guy who can get deals done. mitt romney is the real winner. lars, the last word. >> he is the real winner. he came out with the right message, is the president completely disconnected from the american public? the private sector is terrible right now, and the cuts to government at the local level were absolutely essential, and

the last thing we should do is borrow more money. >> i've got to leave it there. you've got to leave it there. jared, thank you for doing double, triple and quadruple duties. you're terrific. >> anytime. >> lars larsen, thank you, and mark simone, you showed up on time. high marks for that. >> thanks. stocks get the best week all year, is a european rescue of spain? or maybe now the new promise of low tack and low-spend pro-growth economy in the usa, starting with wisconsin. our market panel is next. still ahead, our political market panel. it looks as a different basket of stocks, such as chris christy marco rubio, bob mcdonald, just three of a number of candidates vying for veep. which stock is a good buy? and which stock should be shorted? we'll get it to you all, later on kudlow. ♪ i'm making my money do more.

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all all right. the dow and s&p logged their best week of it is year, both up nearly 4%. stocks had a great week. is it pro-growth policies in the u.s.? a change in politics here? or is it a spanish bailout coming from europe this weekend? or whatever your heart desires. what's driving this train? we've got to talk. we've got two of the softest. dave malpest, and cnbc

contributor zach karabell. there's a lot going on out there, but 436 points, i think, what, 270, almost 300 points game the day after the wisconsin landslide, which included pension cuts in california as well. stocks react to growth politics. is that possible? nobody in this building agrees with me. but absolutely true. any country that makes structure reforming, the stock market goes up. that's happened throughout history. they're in a country, because they want more private sector and less government. if you show me a government that's downsizing itself, i'm going to show you a stock market that's going up. one other thing that helped, the. >> we always obsess about europe, but what i'm saying is,

zach, if the united states moves back in the direction of free market pro-business, pro-growth policies, not only does it help our stock market economy, but we are the center of the world. it helps the whole world market. i think that's part of the rally -- >> i'm not going to agree with one of the -- but i will say that it wasn't just the johnson recall, but votes in -- san jose as well, which would consider to be -- >> you're getting downsized government, which opens the door. >> and you're getting it more confide edly, i'll buy that. i'm with you. the state 2k3w06789s are demonstrating. this may be the discipline of balanced budgets that when spending is misaligned and future expectations are not aligned, everything has to give. that includes commitments. i think markets probably reacted, which is there is an assumption of a fiscal cliff that we will not work out our

problems, there's very little assumption that we might. if that assumption proves to be wrong we'll be in much better shape. >> that's going to be tricky. now, let's go to spain, is spain -- is it banks going to be bailed out? >> i think it will be capitally enjected, but the bigger issue is, is germany the tone between the two? think of this as a giant negotiation, where the periphery countries are like san diego or san jose, and germany is saying you should downsize, and they're standing there saying no, you keep giving us money, so why moo we downside? that's a negotiation that's been going on now for two years. >> will that be completed successfully? >> the markets are in this continual skids phrenic binairy reality. i real the column in the

financial times this week that made me want to slit my wrists, which is you either are in this meltdown of a financial system, which you don't want to be in stocks, bonds or financial instruments. >> why did banks do so well this week? >> because the flip side of that binary fear is i think the market is deeply undervalued relative to global fundamentals. here i disagree with the china skeptics that there won't be an implosion. >> what's your favorite investment placement right now? >> i think u.s. equities are poised -- there was a letdown here in april and may on the idea, as zach says, the end of the world is here, a binair equation. germany has a lot of money. what they've got asking is for some government downsizing in the periphery. remember, greece said not us, we're not -- >> sometimes a rising tide can lift all -- >> i think the opportunity is

huge. >> i agree with david, you just -- >> favorite investment. >> global equities and u.s. leveraged, but you do have to be careful in this market. >> thank you, gentlemen. great stuff. very interesting, buy america. up next on kudlow, mitt romney is in the market, and they are auditioning at today's conservative cpac meeting in chicago, so in a very cnbc way, if contenders like chris christy, should romney buy, sell or hold? our political market may have beens when we come back. k. financial consultation ttd# 1-800-345-2550 when companies try to sell you something off their menu ttd# 1-800-345-2550 instead of trying to understand what you really need. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we provide ttd# 1-800-345-2550 a full range of financial products, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 even if they're not ours. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 and we listen before making our recommendations, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so we can offer practical ideas that make sense for you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck, and see how we can help you, not sell you.

the administration is the nexus of liberalism and incompetent together, and that's a deadly combination. he ran a clever campaign in 2008, presented himself as a moderate, a centrist, but the reality is he's governed as the most liberal president since jimmy carter was president of the united states. >> the leadership is driving this business, the united states of america, towards a fiscal cliff. we better assistant together and stop him from doing it. >> that, of course was a pair of mitt romney's potential vflt p contenders. tonight, we're taking a krmt nbc approach. we are exploring the potential picks much like we would a stock. who is overvalued in terms of risk versus reward, and florida

as marco rubio, this, by the way, is coming from the intrade global investment parlor, a very efficient market. marco rubio right now these two senators get a lot of attention. portman and rubio there at the top. who might be undervalued? you should consider this category, john thune, kelly ayotte, bob mcdonald donnell, paul ryan and connedi rice. >> the risks and rewards seem to be priced about right. again the quotes here are from the global investment market called intrade, you pay to play. so here to help us is larry sabato, university of virginia sthr for politics and cnbc contributor robert costa of "the national review." bob costa, you're supposed to

buy low and sell high. so, therefore, portman and rubio at 27 and 20%, respectively, look like they're a bit overpriced, bob, what do you think? >> i'm still bullish that romney will pick a low-key mid western senator, maybe paul ryacy. he may tap paul ryan to try to get the badger state. he doesn't want someone to overpower the ticket, so i think portman still has to be at the top of your list. >> larry, if you're an investor, you're supposed to buy low and sell high, so i'm looking at the cheap stocks, thune 2.1, kelly ayotte, mcdonnell, 2.9, there's an interesting one, connedi rice. would you invest down there at those candidates? >> well, maybe jindal. on my crystal ball sight, jindal is in the top four, though i'm

with bob, rob portman is the best pick, and vanilla is in, i don't care what your stocks say, vanilla is in. that's the flavor to buy this year. >> actually that's what the intrade is saying, portman's chances of victory are the absolute best. he's all the way up to 27%, so that supports your view. bob costa, do you agree with larry sabato, does he meet your characteristics? >> he does. >> portman meets them, but i sat down with john thune in washington. he brings everything portman brings to the table, but doesn't have the george w. bush connection. portman was bush's budget director. thune is close with mitch mcconnell, so brings you everything that romney wants, the beltway experience, but respected by conservatives without the bush ties, but portman is so well-respected, i don't see him dropping too much.

>> thune is cheap, his symptom is 2.1% chance of victory. larry sabato. i i've got some fair values here. we've talked about jindal. tim pawlenty 6.5% chance, mitch daniels, of.5% chance and chris christie, 6.8% chance, what do you make of christie off the top of your head, larry? >> you know, look, larry, chris christie should be running for president, as a vice presidential candidate, i think he would be on the front page probably two or three times as often as mitt romney, which is exactly what you don't want. so, no, i don't think he's an ideal vp candidate, and he can't carry new jersey. this is about the electoral college. it's amazing how fee people can keep their focus on getting to 270. portman is worth 18 electoral

votes. john thune? three votes in south dakota that's automatically republican? i mean, come on. >> last one, bob costa, the quote on tim pawlenty, 6.5% chance of victory looks fairly valued to me. what do you make of tim pawlenty? independents pawlenty has run a presidential campaign this cycle, if romney is looking for a safe pick, t-paw is right there. he brings you that competent from the upper midwest, but i think dr. sabado has a great point, christie may overpower the district. but the romney campaign is running an aggressive campaign. if they want to double down on that aggress, christie is the guy to be the attack dog. >> about 20 seconds to respond. >> well, he's right about that. you can, as clinton did in picking gore, you can double down and end up with an electoral bonanza, but i say go

safe, pick vanilla, but pick a cone that will get you some electoral votes, because that's the name of the game. that's the whole game. >> all right. we're going to leave it there, gentlemen. thank you for your stock picking. i appreciate it. great to see you. larry and robert costa. that's it for tonight's show. thanks for watching. have a great weekend. we'll see how these intrade odds play out in the veep stakes. i have evidence that proves my dad's a space alien. he speaks a weird language. [ gargling ] [ gargling ] he drinks green stuff. he says he's from albuquerque. i'm not buying it. i mean, just look at him. and one more thing -- he has a spaceship. [ whirring ] the evidence doesn't lie.

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